Catallaxy Files

Russia is difficult to govern at the best of times and there were, and are, a range of issues that allow Vladimir Putin to retain the Presidency. Very few Western political leaders could cope with managing the country, the economy or the international politics. Leaders such as Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Jacinda Ardern, Boris Johnson or our Scott Morrison would be eaten alive in Russia. Like him or hate him, Putin is wily and tough – but is his time as leader coming to an end?

This year and next will be pivotal for Russian domestic politics and international relations, with events in both arenas poised to have a determinative impact on Russia’s trajectory for years, if not decades. With Putin’s omnipresence a defining feature of Russia’s strategy, how domestic political rivals and international players manoeuvre in and around his path will significantly shape the global geopolitical landscape.

Putin’s current term does not end until 2024 and a referendum in 2020 gave him the ability to remain president until 2036. When his formal tenure ends however, won’t just be a matter of preference.

Putin is wary of leaving office with Russia in any political, social, and economic disarray and will only step aside when he can be confident of a steady transition to a successor of his choosing. He is looking ahead to the State Duma elections in September to serve as a bellwether for his voluntary departure timeline.

If Putin’s United Russia party does well in September, Putin has a three year window to pursue a relatively smooth transition. If United Russia does not have a particularly strong showing, Putin is likely to stay on after 2024, hedging his bets that he can improve transition conditions over time.

Whilst international observers will focus on September’s State Duma elections, the status of Alexei Navalny is also filled with risk for Putin. Various governments, notably the US, have protested his imprisonment and this has prompted EU members to also express their displeasure. Russia significantly depends on the EU for the importation of its oil and gas so the enactment of additional sanctions, curtailment of supply contracts or other punitive measures would not pass unnoticed in Russia.

From an risk perspective, it is difficult to ratify Putin’s cost-benefit analysis on Navalny. Russia’s domestic political landscape and economic outlook are largely stable but the country will not benefit from additional negative international attention. One of the enduring issues in Russia is that it resents not always being accorded its rightful place in the international sphere so the treatment of Navalny weakens Putin’s international credibility.

I think 2021/22 will be a pivotal for Putin with a convergence of domestic and foreign policy issues. Coupled with the Black Swan event we know as covid, there are very real implications for Russia’s economy and Putin’s political future not to mention thornier strategic concerns and goals.

Putin knows that expanding Russia’s realm of influence requires varying degrees of focus to most points of the globe: westward to the EU, east to the USA and various points south to the Balkans, the Middle East and management of the expanded relationship with China. While many European countries remain transfixed by covid, their economies and other internal issues, 2021/22 is a prime time for Russia to double down to build influence and re-build relationships, notably with the US and some in the EU.

The success, or otherwise, of Russia’s international relationships will pay a role in Putin deciding to hang up his boots from day-to-day politics. It is unlikely that he will retire altogether – he will remain a kingmaker in Russia for many years – but at 68 years old, mortality is beginning to make its presence felt. If Putin is confident that he can handover a domestically strong and internationally relevant country, the Putin era will draw to a close.

I doubt that Afghanistan will ever have a musical like Evita in its honour but if Andrew Lloyd Webber and Tim Rice are looking for another project, and Julie Covington is available to sing the title track, they could have another hit on their hands.

The Afghan equivalent to Eva Perón could be Queen Soraya Tarzi who was a highly influential figure and a fierce advocate for women’s rights and girls’ access to education back in the 1920’s.  In particular, that would appeal to the Leftists.

Whilst we wait for the debut of the stage production, the Taliban are relentlessly making their way across the Afghan wilderness with an increasing number of districts and cities falling under their control.  Virtually every intelligence service expects the government of President Ghani to fall within the coming weeks without substantial Western support.  The United States has promised to provide the Afghan government with $4.5 billion a year, a large chunk of it for the Afghan security forces, and 29 Black Hawk helicopters but that pre-supposes that the government survives.

The issue troubling Western governments is that a Taliban victory in Afghanistan will be a disaster for the region due to the refugee flow it would spark and, it is very likely to embolden neighbouring Pakistan’s homegrown extremists and lead to a resurgent al Qaeda.  Even if the Pakistani government cracked down on domestic religious radicalism, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan will provide the Pakistani Taliban the same safe haven that they once enjoyed inside Pakistan.

Yet astonishingly, Pakistani authorities are almost jubilant at the speed of the Taliban advance but they may come to regret their enthusiasm.  It is well documented that without Pakistani support, the Taliban would struggle to be the force they are with Pakistan supplying weapons, safe-havens and logistical support.  Pakistani officials dismiss Western accusations about their complicity by pointing to the casualties they themselves have suffered, but it is a charade.  Some rank-and-file soldiers may have suffered but the ‘price’ was low to camouflage the relationship with the Taliban.

It is hard to escape the conclusion that Pakistani leadership don’t realize or don’t care how tenuous their position really is and how outnumbered they will be.  Afghanistan is not yet a failed state but it is a dead one walking.  If Pakistan follows, it will have no one to blame but itself.

Whilst the Pakistani government may not have recognised the problem, others have.  There is unmistakable anxiety in New Delhi that the return of the Taliban to power might precipitate the return of Pakistan-based jihadi groups that have a history of attacking India.  Separately, the governments of Russia and China are also worried by the potential fallout from an extended Afghan civil war.  Then, there is the likelihood of a massive refugee crisis.  Current reports suggest over 500,000 Afghanis have already been displaced by the Taliban’s reinvigorated insurgency.   Of particular concern for China is that a problem in Afghanistan threatens the One Belt, One Road initiative and/or a problem in Pakistan also threatens the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Yet, it is India that probably has the most to lose.

New Delhi has reportedly been scrambling to send reconciliatory messages to the Taliban – messages that have to date been unanswered.  The Afghan government meanwhile, are not pleased with the reports and is appealing for India to provide more support.  Afghanistan’s envoy to India Farid Mamundzay recently said “Should we reach a complete deadlock with the Taliban, then we would want India’s military assistance.”

It is extremely unlikely that India will send its army in Afghanistan while others have suggested a peacekeeping force under the flag of the United Nations.  The idea has already been unofficially floated at the UN although it is unclear what reception it received.  (I would imagine lukewarm, at best).

If the Taliban succeed in overthrowing the Afghani government, which is virtually certain, it will likely initiate one of those ‘games’ where every player wins a prize.  The Pakistani government will have their hands full with revitalised local extremists leading to serious security concerns for India.  Beyond that, Iran have been cultivating a tactical alliance with the Taliban (despite previous bad blood) over the past couple of years not to mention the implications for China and Russia with their commercial and military links in the region.  If Western governments completely lose their minds and return their militaries to Afghanistan, we have the makings of a colossal global flashpoint.

The entire area is riven with centuries old alliances, disputes, clashes and coalitions all mingled into a seething pot.  Tighten your seat belt and see if you can get Andrew Lloyd Webber on the ‘phone.