In 2019 on the old Cat I submitted a guest post about electric vehicles. I was neither pro nor con towards electric (or other zero emission vehicles) and merely pointed to their inevitability. Part of that post said:
We will notice a profound change over the next few years on the roads, and in the showrooms. Some basic research found:
• Toyota – minimum 10 electric vehicles by 2022-23. Minimum US$13 billion on battery development (excludes vehicle development).
• VW – 50 EV models by 2025/6 (aspirational of 80 models!). Investing US$40 billion in vehicle technology and battery development.
• Hyundai/Kia – 31 to 38 EV models by 2026/7.
• Ford – Offering 16 EVs by 2026.
• Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi Alliance – 12 new EVs by 2022/3.
• PSA Alliance (Peugeot, Citroen, Opel, Vauxhall) – 15 new EV’s by 2024/5.
I went on to detail Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi, Volvo and others, plus the massive investments of those companies in zero emission vehicles and the planned vehicle releases. I noted that heavy vehicles were an entirely different issue and electricity supply was a concern.
In view of the recent announcement that US President Joe Biden has signed an Executive Order that targets (not mandates) 50 per cent of all new vehicles sold in the US be zero emission by 2030, I thought it was timely to re-visit the issue.
To recap, Biden said: “The future of the auto industry is electric – and made in America. Today I’m signing an executive order with a goal to make 50 per cent of new vehicles sold by 2030 zero-emission – and unveiling steps to reverse the previous administration’s short-sighted rollback of vehicle standards.”
I don’t know whether that target is achievable in the US by 2030 but Ford have already developed the Mustang Mach-E electric vehicle and the soon to arrive electric F-Series pick-up truck. The F-Series is the bestselling vehicle in the US and one of the highest selling vehicles in the world.
Believe it or not, General Motors is bringing back the Hummer as an electric vehicle. The Hummer will be reborn as an all-electric adventure machine in 2023. Using triple electric motors, the Hummer will reportedly launch from 0-100km/h in about 3.5 seconds, which is quicker than the current BMW M3.
Those vehicles are just part of the combined $63 billion Ford and GM will invest in electric vehicles over the coming decade. I’m sure they’re expecting a return on that investment.
The choice of zero-emission vehicles on offer in Australia will increase substantially over the next five years. Based on manufacturer offerings, I expect there will be relatively few new internal combustion engine cars for sale in Australia by 2030/31 and by 2035/6, they will be rare. By 2040, forget it. Australia is too small a market for a manufacturer to justify offering the same model with electric and ICE variants.
What remains unclear is the extent of incentives offered by the federal and state governments to prompt changeover. NSW and Victoria offer modest incentives on registration and vehicle charging costs whilst the federal government offer a very modest concession of the Luxury Car Tax that principally benefits top end Tesla buyers. However, most state governments are also considering a usage charge on owners to offset the forecast loss of fuel tax revenue.
If I may be allowed a prediction, I doubt that incentives will be significant. Governments will be well aware of the inevitability of electric or other zero emission vehicles – after all, at a federal level, they voted for it in the UN.
Therefore, if the world’s manufacturers are headlong changing to zero emission vehicles and the consumer has no choice, why offer incentives? If I was a deceitful tax greedy government with huge debt, I would pay mere lip service to your grumblings. What makes you think our actual government(s) are any different?
The car fleet will just age, and the political class will get the new shiny. They will probably also have special lanes and toll discounts for the virtuous. You could call them the politburo class.
moderated
Where is all the electricity to charge these things going to come from?
Seems to me we’d have to go nuclear.
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Entropy says:
August 13, 2021 at 12:14 pm
…….They will probably also have special lanes and toll discounts for the virtuous. You could call them the politburo class.
Yes, just like in the old USSR where the politburo had special number plates on their vehicles and their chauffeured cars could travel at any speed and ignore other road rules.
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Roger says:
August 13, 2021 at 12:14 pm
Where is all the electricity to charge these things going to come from?
Don’t be ridiculous Roger. You know about the big batteries being built, plus all the roof top solar systems, windmills etc. And wasn’t Scotty going to build a big new gas fired power station? You’re just being obstructionist. Climate DENIER!!!!!
/sarc. Tongue very firmly in cheek.
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Yeah. The guys in the industry have no idea about the industry. Only a politician understands.
And he has a 9-year plan – ‘cos our Uncle Joe is even more brilliant than Russia’s Uncle Joe.
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Albo told us where the electricity will come from … we’ll charge our electric cars at night using our roof top solar panels.
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“…we’ll charge our electric cars at night using our roof top solar panels.”
No, no – you will plug your car in to charge overnight in your special charging point, only to discover in the morning that the grid needed your car battery to “keep the lights on”, so it now has a 10km range, despite the fact that when you plugged it in it had 100km range of a 300km total.
See? – grid scale, distributed storage. And GovCo didn’t have to pay for it either. Of course, if you don’t have a detached garage, you might not be insured if the car catches fire and burns your house down, but that’s a small price to pay to “save” the planet, innit?
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What news about the Chinee car makers?
Havel? Great Wall? LDV? Chery? (and no, Volvo auto has bought out of Geely)
It should be obvious that the promised land EV push is a symbiosis between EU-US governments and regulators. The Nips and Koreans are happy to sell to the woke world, that’s their manufacturing niche, but the CCP will still be churning them out for Asia and Africa, and whichever poor round-eye, far offf the gold-plated grid, that will have to stump up for the bargain basement ICUs.
Asbestos brake sh!tboxes for the doxbox belt will subsidise the flowering of a thousand burning Teslas!
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Most West Australians can hardly keep in a lane, so what will happen when they accelerate at double the speed they are used to?
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I suspect the real reason for electric vehicles is that they can be controlled remotely.
Comrade is trying to leave suburb! Instastop.
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Manufacturers are gearing up for electric vehicles, simply because governments are telling them ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles will be banned or taxed into oblivion in the near future. Several manufacturers are hedging their bets by developing fuel cell and hydrogen alternatives. They know that batteries will always limit the practicality of vehicles. The witness to this is the lack of genuine electric heavy vehicle options for anything other than short trips.
Similar to vehicle manufacturers leaving Australia because they knew the price of electricity alone would make staying here impractical, global manufacturers have the inside track on legislative developments in this space. They have decades of research and investment in ICE that they are abandoning to go down a pathway that is frankly not very impressive. Great, you can get to 100km/h in 3 seconds but only travel less than 100km if you use that capacity.
If there is an open market in the future, new players would fill the ICE space.
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Power electronics has come a long way. Batteries are a weak link in the chain. I expect some kind of hybrid will be the answer to many of these issues. Multi fuel Free piston range extenders or fuel cell equivalents to meet particular markets.
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If the eco warriors get rid of the Petrolem distribution network and the Natural Gas distribution network, they are going to need a very large and vulnerable grid with a massive storage capacity to cover all energy use. All the eggs in one basket, so to speak, and no coal or nuclear? Tell em they’re dreaming.
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Manufacturers are gearing up for electric vehicles, simply because governments are telling them ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles will be banned or taxed into oblivion in the near future. Several manufacturers are hedging their bets by developing fuel cell and hydrogen alternatives. They know that batteries will always limit the practicality of vehicles.
Good comment.
We may get away with electric / battery for short hops around town, but it is useless for longer trips and for hauling cargo. Stuff that Australia depends on.
Hydrogen internal combustion is about the only alternative to that. This (even at half hour long) is a very good watching – people putting their money where their mouth is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19Q7nAYjAJY
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Good to see more vehicle discussion!
I’ve been trying to understand today why the manufacturers are getting rid of petrol utes.
What we’re headed toward – designedly – is a two-tier vehicular society.
Electric cars are going to cost a fortune and, once normal vehicles are banned, we will be encouraged (‘nudged’) to have a ‘national conversation’ about public transport.
Driving will become something rich people do.
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C.L. says:
August 13, 2021 at 2:20 pm
Electricity to charge them, alternatives like hydrogen…..yes and yes, but that won’t stop the transition. The decisions have already been made and our opinions were not sought.
I can imagine you’re correct about a two-tier system as for several years, many will not be able to afford to change but the cost of petrol and registration, in particular, will reach (more) punitive levels and the maintenance of an ICE will be, relatively, too high.
It’s not hard to draw a parallel with the way we are being ‘encouraged’ to have a vaccination for covid. In the end, governments will make life very difficult, and potentially more expensive, for those who decline.
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The thing is, all those major car companies have subsidiaries in third world countries that aren’t going to give up production of them. Renault for instance owns both Lada and Dacia. Nissan brought back Datsun as a third world brand. VW makes ( or made) cars specifically for the South American market, especially Brazil. The internal combustion engine might be dead in Europe but I bet there will be a handy grey import market here.
I’ve always said I would consider an electric car if it could give me 750km range like my trusty small car can with the added ability to recharge it’s driving range in the 5 minutes it takes me at the servo (including toilet time). The reality is an electric car can not do that which is why they gave up on electric cars 100 years ago. I will not, under any circumstances reward that snake oil salesman at Tesla
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How many charging stations do you reckon there are going to be on the Nullabor?
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How will we power our tractors?
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Arky on KLF: https://rumble.com/vl1bug-klf-and-burning-a-million-pounds.html
Arky, summarised-
KLF: Burns the equivalent of 1-200,000 man-hours’ owed work and effort.
Society: How DARE you declare we owe you nothing?!
Nice insights, mate.
Money is merely a commodity of exchange. Exactly as you describe it, it is an indebted exchange of labour.
If it is not moving and being exchanged, it is worthless.
If it is not something you wish to be owed to you, then having it is worthless.
And as a means of thumbing one’s nose at an entire social strata (and those in thrall to it) that seeks and worships the concentration of power through acquiring and controlling that commodity of exchange, KLF’s act remains unsurpassed.
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Oops!
Wrong fred.
Lemme try again…
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Went to major shopping centre this morning, out of probably 1000 parking spots, there were three prime position charging stations and despite the fact that the place was a virtual ghost town, one of those was in use.
Im yeah nah on EV take up, people will just nurse their ice vehicles longer, I think that’s already happening in the US.
Americans outside LA and New York cover a lot of miles. EVs and range anxiety. Pffft.
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Damon says:
August 13, 2021 at 2:37 pm
Dunno. How many would you like? Servos will include, and eventually be replaced by, charging stations. With casual eateries while you wait. Perhaps some of those slimmed down hotels that offer just a bed.
Transition in Australia will not be ‘easy’ because of our vast distances and tiny population but that will not allow us to avoid the inevitability. Remember that the overwhelming bulk of our population rarely drive 250+km beyond their home and if they do so, it is between major population centres. Longer trips are usually by air.
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Allergy says:
August 13, 2021 at 2:45 pm
How will we power our tractors?
Horse power, with bonus fertilizer.
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“ How will we power our tractors?”
I expect that agricultural tractors will eventually be electric drive with exchangeable generator/s on board. There maybe facilities for them to feed the grid at peak times when not used for ag purposes.
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To clarify: the ag implements will be electric-self propelled carrying a drop-on genset.
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I will add that Hydrogen is also problematic, Hydrogen atoms are very small and sealing the equipment to transfer it from source to application is tricky (particularly in moving equipment with vibration). The other obstacle is Hydrogen requires high pressure to be condensed to a point where it becomes energy dense enough to be effective. Liquifying it is impractical as it requires very very high pressure and or very very low temperature.
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I will add that Hydrogen is also problematic
Not as problematic as electric/battery. Far Far simpler. And if you look at the vid I posted above – all that you raise has been solved ECONOMICALLY.
To close the loop, you just produce the hydrogen from water etc using solar wind etc.
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The most important question for Canberra will be.
How will we replace that fuel excise tax take?
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a reader says: August 13, 2021, at 2:36 pm
There is a meme going around which says approximately:
“When your EV runs out of juice on a lonely stretch of highway, where will you take your fuel can to fill up with 10L of electricity?”
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Buccaneer says: August 13, 2021, at 3:43 pm
Liquefying should be a process adaptable from well-understood LPG technology. That video hints at some of it but doesn’t go into it fully.
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The fun thing is existing stock. In the EU for example there’s several hundred million petrol and diesel cars on the road right now.
So if they ban new ICE cars from 2025 or whenever those hundreds of millions will all still be there.
The pollies won’t dare close down the petrol distribution network for that reason. If they try punitive taxes all that will happen is a ginormous petrol black market.
And the ICE cars are just going to keep running. And running. Because they’re cheaper by a significant margin and electricity prices will be continue going up due to supply and demand. More demand from EVs + not much new supply = stratospheric electricity prices.
Then two things will happen: the mechanical repair guys will all suddenly become quite well off, and second hand ICE cars will keep on arriving mysteriously into the EU, probably from Turkey and Russia.
So the net result is the EU will have the same number of ICE cars on the road, but they’ll all be old. And this will go on for 50 years at least, seeing that Cubans are still driving 1959 Cadillacs around Havana.
Oh and all the EU car companies will go bankrupt because people will stop buying their cars, because they won’t be offering cars that the public actually wants.
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As it originally was.
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So the net result is the EU will have the same number of ICE cars on the road, but they’ll all be old. And this will go on for 50 years at least, seeing that Cubans are still driving 1959 Cadillacs around Havana.
A few sci-fi type scenarios … the Big EV Battery Tech Companies by hook and crook preventing any more economical / efficient technologies from impinging their dominance – which is subsidised by taxpayers. Black markets providing transport solutions based on old / new tech disguised to look like EV. Mafia / Yakuza enforcing compliance. Cyber Punk meet Steam Punk [or should that be Petrol Punk?]
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I wonder if Arky could add a little modification to mine?
https://ogdaa.blogspot.com/2021/08/fuck-that-slowpoke-in-front-of-me.html
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C.L. says:
August 13, 2021 at 2:20 pm
What we’re headed toward – designedly – is a two-tier vehicular society.
Driving will become something rich people do.
Energy feudalism.
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Bruce of Newcastle says:
August 13, 2021 at 4:02 pm
That’s a very solid comment, Bruce. Food for thought. Cheers.
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Professor Higgins says:
August 13, 2021 at 3:50 pm
The most important question for Canberra will be.
How will we replace that fuel excise tax take?
A distance cap that is dependent upon your social credit score. Exceed your designated cap, pay the fee. A vote for the Year Zero Party adds 5% to your social credit score, therefore your distance cap is extended 5%. Vote conservative, drive an ICE vehicle: lose a % of social credit points; pay a larger fee to travel (in addition to the fuel excise).
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Rorschach – The really entertaining thing is that the Chinese don’t believe in CAGW, and they build lots of cheap ICE cars. Which are increasingly of reasonable quality.
So then the EU forces their own manufacturers to stop making ICE cars. Shortly afterwards there will be at first a trickle, then a flood, of Chinese vehicles coming in via places like Bulgaria and Romania. (These of course will be “used cars”, one owner, very short mileage, with about 30 km on their clocks.)
Now what is going to happen, do you think, when the EU tries to stop the Chinese selling cars to europroles? It’ll be so much fun!
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Nah.
You get two giant magnets, on one you paint the words “The Greens will not approve” and on the other “The unions will not approve”. Between you put a Labor politician with coils of wire running down to their shoes and have them standing on two metal plates.
Then you just let them go – as they swivel away from one option to the other and then back, and so forth, you get a current.
Mind you, if Labor is involved in designing this, they will insist on electromagnets so 10kV energy will produce 10V. But they will insist that it is a job creating screen and gloss over the fact the electromagnets are powered by coal.
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Shortly afterwards there will be at first a trickle, then a flood, of Chinese vehicles coming in via places like Bulgaria and Romania. (These of course will be “used cars”, one owner, very short mileage, with about 30 km on their clocks.)
During the war, and after, a lot of cars ran on Benzene – refined from coal. I reckon there will be a resurgence! [And shops will spring up retrofitting petrol ICE engines…]
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How will we power our tractors? /em>
Why do you need tractors when you have cheerful peasants to pull your plough?
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How will we power our tractors?
Why do you need tractors when you have cheerful peasants to pull your plough?
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The reemergence of electric vehicles is only due to one thing: Central Planning.
I can’t wait to see the manifold unintended consequences.
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Vik’s Big Battery fire …
the one that burned for days …
I said to a work mate, “how are the lobby put a positive spin on that event?”
He looked at me and cocked his head,”Duh, … it was Green Fire”
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Did I miss the part where a point was made?
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Bruce of Newcastle says:
August 13, 2021 at 4:02 pm
The transition from ICE to electric (or other zero emission) will take 20+ years. Easy. But, and unlike the Cubans, it will be accompanied by increasingly punitive taxes of ICE vehicles. What starts as a gradual increase in fuel price via a ‘surcharge’ escalates. Surcharges on registration cost per year, steep and rising transfer fees when you transfer an ICE vehicle to a new owner. There are heaps of ways to make life difficult and expensive. ‘Environmental’ tax per tonne of CO2 emitted from your ICE. No pay, no rego renewal.
It will take years but as I mentioned to CL upthread, there is something of a parallel with the way we are being ‘encouraged’ to have a vaccination for covid. Eventually, life will be difficult and more expensive for those who decline.
Chinese imports of ICE cars? Yeah, maybe but the same punitive taxation and running costs applies. Governments will tax the shite out of ICE cars in future. Also, the major manufacturers will be screaming they have invested ‘$300Bn’ in the past two decades and the “government are allowing us to be be undersold by Beijing”.
No way. No major government will cop the heat.
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The Greentards and Ecoloonies want to stop all travel to save Gaia. They know that electric/battery vehicles are uneconomic and unfeasible (imagine the weight of the battery on a plane to London!). Making travel prohibitively expensive is a way to achieve this goal. Only the rich and entitled will be able to travel (in their private planes!)
Putting the tinfoil hat on again…
The COVID pandemic is also another way of achieving this! The travel restrictions currently in place are unlikely to be lifted as variant after variant of the WuhanFlu (or whatever) emerges. The great unwashed – even if they could afford it – would not be able to travel. A 14 day quarrantine either side will mean your annual leave used up sitting in a hotel room! Not much of a holiday!
I fear for our future. My kids (late teens) have already lost a year and a half of what is usually the best part of our lives locked up. And I can’t see this changing! The Lambda variant is on its way!
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The thing about electric vehicles that bothers me is where the battery tends to be. As in you are sitting on it in hybrids and electric cars. Effectively dangling your balls in a magnetic field for extended periods can’t be good for you.
Perhaps similar to highway patrol officers and fighter pilots apparently come down with certain cancers/ cell derangements at higher rates than the general public. Some put that down to the bandwidth their two-ways run on/in, others to the plethora of electrical devices that end up jammed into patrol cars/ plane cabins.
Haven’t heard anyone connect that theory about covid vaccinations sterilising women with a theoretical concurrent depopulation plan, fait accompli given electric vehicles. Perhaps soon.
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Gee, where’d that last post go to?
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